Friday, May 12, 2006

Symmetry? Fearful?

Having just gone through the Cold War class yet again, I'm struck by the similarities between the Cuban Missle Crisis, mediated by the dueling Ks--Kennedy and Khrushchev--and the Iran nuclear showdown, featuring the rhetorical bomb-throwing President Akhmadinejad and our own, actual bomb-dropping President Bush. President Kennedy, alarmed by the apparent victory of Communism in the western hemisphere, okayed a dubious plot in the spring of l961 involving Cuban emigres. who would invade Cuba and topple Fidel Castro. Gee, when in recent history have we had trouble with rosy scenarios designed by emigres? Nevermind. The ensuing fiasco--the invasion went terribly wrong and failed-- gave Khrushchev the opportunity to sell Castro an "insurance policy" against further US military action--a set of nuclear missles. Once President Kennedy and his advisers learned of the missle installations being built on Cuba, they confronted Khrushchev and demanded the removal of the offending projectiles. The affair--and all our health and welfare--turned on a couple of letters, one threatening and bellicose, the other conciliatory, seeking a way out of the confrontation. President Kennedy's brother, Robert, suggested they respond only to the conciliatory letter, and that ended the most serious crisis of the nuclear age--Khrushchev agreed to remove the missles in exchange for President Kennedy's pledge not to invade Cuba and a promised removal of missles from Turkey.
Just think about the course of the current crisis with Iran. President Bush identifies Iran as a member of the "axis of evil" in the infamous 2002 State of the Union speech. Iran goes public with its intentions to develop a nuclear bomb, with which it can threaten Israel. An insurance policy, one might think. President Bush declares a nuclear Iran unacceptable and maintains "all options are on the table," including military action. Then comes a rambling letter from Ahmadinejad with some pointed questions for President Bush, followed by another letter, a pointedly conciliatory one, from one of Iran's clerics. One wonders who is in charge there, exactly, but nevermind. The question now is, which letter will President Bush answer, if he wishes to play President Kennedy in this drama? And what about a guarantee that "regime change" won't be coming Iran's way if the spectre of the bomb disappears? Will anyone try this option, even consider it? Are there any grownups in the room?
Let's hope that this symmetry won't turn out to be fearful, as in the image of the Tiger, burning bright.

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